Surf Coast residents often have questions about the size, make up and growth of the Shire’s population.
For several years the Population Profile and Population Forecast published on the council website have enabled students, community organisations, local businesses, service agencies and others to research and plan.
The Population Profile provides detailed information from the 1991 to the 2011 Census periods.
The Population Forecast contains updated population projections produced by demographic specialists, Forecast ID.
These include projections of population and local demography up until 2031, based on patterns of population movements over time.
Surf Coast Forecasts – 2015 update
Latest population forecasts show 40,073 in 2031, 4,713 less than 2013 estimate
The 2015 revision of the Surf Coast Shire population and housing forecasts by .id is the first update of the forecasts since early 2013. The updated forecasts include the final 2011 ABS Estimated Resident Population (ERP) as a starting point, and now run through to 2036, an additional five years compared to the previous forecasts. The new forecasts now include dwelling construction up to 2015.
The overall result is a lower forecast than previous. By 2031, the new forecasts have the Shire at 40,073 compared to 44,786 in the old forecasts. The new 2036 forecast population is 43,763. The major reason for the reduced forecast is a reduction in the numbers of dwellings assumed to be constructed. This is particularly an issue in the period from 2013 to 2016, where around 500 fewer dwellings are expected.
Much of this slowdown in the 2013-2014 period is due to relatively low numbers of new houses being constructed in Torquay West and Torquay North. Torquay North in particular has declined as The Quay estate has neared completion without neighbouring estates appearing to take up the demand. This situation is now changing with development rates on the increase, but it does have knock on effects for the overall forecasts. It is likely that high rates of development in Armstrong Creek have also had some impact on the overall Torquay market.
The forecasts will be reviewed in around 18 months’ time, at which point updated development rates will be incorporated into the forecast assumptions.
Surf Coast Regional Profile
This was produced by the G21 - Geelong Regional Alliance in 2014. It provides a comprehensive snapshot of wide-ranging data including land use, economic development, employment, river health, water usage, climate and rainfall, building approvals, urban settlement, community services, crime rates, property values and human health and wellbeing.
Surf Coast Region Profile:
Surf Coast Data Tables:
G21 Region Profile and other G21 Councils: